Leukemia-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival in the evaluation of maintenance therapy for patients with acute myeloid leukemia in complete remission.

BACKGROUND In trials designed to evaluate new therapies for hematologic malignancies, end points such as leukemia-free survival are often used as surrogates for overall survival in acute leukemia. We aimed to assess whether leukemia-free survival is an acceptable statistical surrogate for overall survival when applied to remission maintenance therapy for acute myeloid leukemia. DESIGN AND METHODS Data were analyzed from a randomized Phase III trial of remission maintenance immunotherapy with histamine dihydrochloride plus low-dose interleukin-2 versus no treatment in adults with acute myeloid leukemia. A two-stage surrogate validation model was applied in which correlations between Kaplan-Meier estimates of leukemia-free survival and overall survival, and between log hazard ratios reflecting treatment effects were analyzed. Country of patient enrollment was the unit of analysis. RESULTS Kaplan-Meier estimates of overall survival at 36, 48, and 60 months and leukemia-free survival at 24 months were reasonably correlated (R(2) ranging from 0.44 to 0.84) both for the overall (n=320) and first complete remission (n=261) populations. The effects of histamine dihydrochloride/interleukin-2 on log hazard ratios for leukemia-free survival and overall survival were well correlated (R(2)=0.88-0.93). CONCLUSIONS The significant correlations between overall survival and the surrogate end point (leukemia-free survival) and between the effect of histamine dihydrochloride/interleukin-2 on leukemia-free survival and overall survival satisfy the two-stage surrogate validation model.